Quantification Methodology for CARB LCT On-Road Benefits Calculator Tool

California Air Resources Board

Quantification Methodology

California Air Resources Board

Low Carbon Transportation Program

On-Road Consumer-Based Incentive Projects

California Climate Investments

FINAL

December 20, 2023

Quantification Methodology for CARB LCT On-Road Consumer-Based Incentive Projects

Table of Contents

Quantification Methodology .......................................................................................... 1

Section A. Introduction ............................................................................................... 1

LCT On-Road Consumer-Based Incentive Projects ................................................ 2

Methodology Development .................................................................................... 4

Tools ........................................................................................................................ 5

Updates ................................................................................................................... 5

Section B. Methods for Awarded and Implemented Projects ................................... 6

General Approach ................................................................................................... 6

Section C. References............................................................................................... 21

Quantification Methodology for CARB LCT On-Road Consumer-Based Incentive Projects

List of Acronyms and Abbreviations

Acronym

Term

BEV

battery electric vehicle

CARB

California Air Resources Board

CC4A

Clean Cars 4 All

CCIRTS

California Climate Investments Reporting and Tracking System

carbon intensity

CNG

compressed natural gas

CVRP

Clean Vehicle Rebate Project

Diesel PM

diesel particulate matter

DSL

diesel

EER

energy economy ratio

EMFAC

emission factors

ePTO

electric power take off

eVMT

electric vehicle miles traveled

FCV

fuel cell vehicle

GAS

gasoline

gCO

grams of carbon dioxide equivalent

GGRF

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund

GHG

greenhouse gas

HVIP

Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project

kWh

kilowatt hours

LCFS

Low Carbon Fuel Standard

LCT

Low Carbon Transportation Program

LHV

lower heating value

LNG

liquefied natural gas

lbs

pounds

miles

megajoule

MTCO

metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent

nitrous oxide

PHEV

plug-in hybrid electric vehicle

particulate matter

2.5

particulate matter with a diameter less than 2.5 micrometers

particulate matter with a diameter less than 10 micrometers

RNG

renewable natural gas

ROG

reactive organic gas

scf

standard cubic feet

VMT

vehicle miles traveled

year

Quantification Methodology for CARB LCT On-Road Consumer-Based Incentive Projects

List of Definitions

Term

Definition

Baseline

The vehicle or equipment that is currently owned/in operation

that will be replaced by a new purchase, or the vehicle or

equipment that would have been purchased otherwise (e.g.,

2023 diesel bus).

Carbon Intensity

The quantity of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions, per unit of

fuel energy, expressed in grams of carbon dioxide equivalent

per megajoule (gCO2e/MJ) as calculated using CA-GREET 3.0,

consistent with California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard.

Co-benefit

A social, economic, or environmental benefit as a result of the

proposed project in addition to the GHG reduction benefit.

Energy and Fuel

Cost Savings

Changes in energy and fuel costs to the vehicle or equipment

operator as a result of the project. Savings may be achieved by

changing the quantity of energy or fuel used or conversion to an

alternative fuel vehicle or equipment.

Energy

Economy Ratio

The dimensionless value that represents the efficiency of a fuel

as used in a powertrain as compared to a reference fuel used in

the same powertrain. EERs are often a comparison of miles per

gasoline or diesel gallon equivalent between another type of

fuel.

Key Variable

Project characteristics that contribute to a project’s GHG

emission reductions and signal an additional benefit (e.g.,

passenger VMT reductions, renewable energy generated).

Quantification

Period

Number of years that the project will provide GHG emission

reductions that can reasonable be achieved and assured.

Sometimes referred to as "Project Life” or “Useful Life”.

Replacement

The new vehicle or equipment that replace a baseline vehicle or

equipment.

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Section A. Introduction

California Climate Investments is a statewide initiative that puts billions of

Cap-and-Trade dollars to work facilitating GHG emission reductions; strengthening

the economy; improving public health and the environment; and providing benefits

to residents of disadvantaged communities, low-income communities, and low-

income households, collectively referred to as “priority populations”. Where

applicable and to the extent feasible, California Climate Investments must maximize

economic, environmental, and public health co-benefits to the State.

CARB is responsible for providing guidance on estimating the GHG emission

reductions and co-benefits from projects receiving monies from the GGRF. This

guidance includes quantification methodologies, co-benefit assessment

methodologies, benefits calculator tools, and associated user guides. CARB develops

these methodologies and tools based on the project types eligible for funding by

each administering agency, as reflected in the program expenditure records

available on the California Climate Investments Attestation Memorandums and

Expenditure Records webpage.

For the CARB LCT program, CARB staff developed this Final LCT On-Road

Quantification Methodology and accompanying Final LCT On-Road Benefits

Calculator Tool to provide guidance for estimating the GHG emission reductions and

selected co-benefits of each proposed project. This methodology uses calculations

to estimate GHG emission reductions from the purchase or lease of advanced

technology vehicles. Specifically, it estimates the emission reductions of the

technology conversion from a conventional fuel vehicle (e.g., gasoline, diesel, CNG)

to an alternative fuel vehicle (e.g., plug-in hybrid electric, battery electric, fuel cell

electric).

The Final LCT On-Road Benefits Calculator Tool automates methods described in this

document, outlines documentation requirements, and provides a link to a step-by-

step user guide with project examples. Projects will report the total project GHG

emission reductions and co-benefits estimated using the Final LCT On-Road Benefits

Calculator Tool. The Final LCT On-Road Benefits Calculator Tool is available for

download at on the California Climate Investments resources webpage.

Using many of the same inputs required to estimate GHG emission reductions, the

Final LCT On-Road Benefits Calculator Tool estimates the following selected

co-benefits and key variables from LCT on-road projects: reductions in criteria and

toxic air pollutants (in tons), including Diesel PM, NO

, ROG, and PM

2.5

; and energy

and fuel cost savings ($). Key variables are project characteristics that contribute to a

project’s GHG emission reductions and signal an additional benefit (e.g., fossil fuel

based transportation fuel use reductions). Additional co-benefits for which CARB

assessment methodologies were not incorporated into the Final LCT On-Road

Quantification Methodology for CARB LCT On-Road Consumer-Based Incentive Projects

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Benefits Calculator Tool may also be applicable to the project. Applicants should

consult the LCT Funding Plan, solicitation materials, and agreements to ensure they

are meeting LCT project requirements.

LCT On-Road Consumer-Based Incentive Projects

The LCT On-Road Consumer-Based Incentive Projects reduce GHG emissions by

providing incentives for advanced vehicle technology types, such as conventional

hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery-electric, fuel cell, and renewable natural gas vehicles.

CARB has identified eight LCT On-Road Consumer-Based Incentive Projects that this

Quantification Methodology is applicable to:

1. Agricultural Worker Vanpools

The Agricultural Worker Vanpools Pilot Project provides safe, convenient and

reliable transportation for agricultural workers living in disadvantaged and low-

income communities, while achieving emission reduction benefits through the

deployment of clean technology vehicles. The project meets a basic

transportation need of agricultural workers and reduces vehicle miles travelled

(VMT) by single occupancy passenger vehicles to job sites.

2. Clean Mobility Options

The Clean Mobility Options pilot project consists of grant projects designed to

improve clean transportation access and increase zero-emission and near zero-

emission mobility choices for the residents of disadvantaged and low-income

communities. Using transportation needs assessments, the projects provide

various clean mobility options (other than vehicle ownership) in order to

increase access to electric car sharing, regular bicycle and electric bicycle

sharing, scooter sharing, vanpools and carpooling, innovative transit services,

and other clean mobility options. Note that the Quantification Methodology

documented herein is only applicable to upfront estimates used for CARB’s

Funding Plan for Clean Transportation Incentives. For project-level estimates,

the specific Clean Mobility Options Quantification Methodology and calculator

tool must be used, available on the California Climate Investments resources

webpage.

3. Clean Mobility in Schools Pilot Project

The Clean Mobility in Schools pilot project provides funding for zero-emission

school buses and other school district vehicles, installation of supporting

charging/fueling infrastructure, other clean mobility options such as creation of

an electric vehicle car sharing service for school district employees and/or a

bike sharing program for school staff and students, zero-emission lawn and

garden equipment, and outreach and education for kindergarten through 12th

grade public school district(s) in disadvantaged communities. Note that the

Quantification Methodology documented herein is only applicable to upfront

Quantification Methodology for CARB LCT On-Road Consumer-Based Incentive Projects

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estimates used for CARB’s Funding Plan for Clean Transportation Incentives.

For project-level estimates, the specific Clean Mobility in Schools

Quantification Methodology and calculator tool must be used, available on the

California Climate Investments resources webpage.

4. Clean Vehicle Rebate Project (CVRP)

CVRP provides vehicle rebates on a first-come, first-served basis to California

residents, businesses, non-profit organizations, government entities, and

public fleets that purchase or lease plug-in hybrid, battery-electric, or fuel cell

vehicles to achieve GHG emission reductions.

5. Clean Cars 4 All

Clean Cars 4 All, formerly known as Enhanced Fleet Modernization Program

(EFMP) Plus-Up, provides incentives for lower-income consumers living in and

near disadvantaged communities who scrap their old vehicles and purchase

new or used hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery-electric, or fuel cell replacement

vehicles. Instead of purchasing a replacement vehicle, participants also have

the option of choosing an alternative mobility incentive voucher (referred to as

the mobility option) to use on public transit and other clean transportation

options. In addition, buyers of plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles are

also eligible for incentives that cover home charging infrastructure for electric

vehicles.

6. Clean Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project (HVIP)

The Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project (HVIP)

is the cornerstone of advanced technology heavy-duty incentives, providing

funding to support the long-term transition to zero-emission vehicles in the

heavy-duty vehicle market.

7. Clean Vehicle Assistance Program / Financing Assistance

Financing Assistance offers financing options to low-income or disadvantaged

individuals in disadvantaged communities in order to improve financing

options for low-income individuals interested in purchasing advanced

technology vehicles.

8. Rural School Bus Pilot

The Rural School Bus Pilot Project helps California school bus fleets turnover to

lower carbon transportation choices by funding new zero-emission school

buses, or new conventional-fueled school buses that use renewable fuels. The

project prioritizes small- and medium-sized air districts (as defined by the

California Air Pollution Control Officers Association) because those air districts

have less access to funding from Department of Motor Vehicle fees and other

local sources. Also prioritized are older school buses with higher mileage.

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9. Zero-Emission Truck Loan Pilot

The Zero-Emission Truck Loan Pilot Project is designed to combine financing

for both heavy-duty zero-emission vehicles and charging or fueling

infrastructure. A comprehensive loan package that combines vehicle and

infrastructure financing will provide additional access to zero-emission

financing and create a streamlined lending process for small businesses that

are transitioning to zero-emission vehicles.

Methodology Development

CARB developed this Final LCT On-Road Quantification Methodology consistent with

the guiding principles of California Climate Investments Funding Guidelines for

Administering Agencies, including ensuring transparency and accountability, to be

used to estimate the outcomes of proposed projects, inform project selection, and

track results of funded projects. The implementing principles ensure that the

methodology:

· Applies at the project-level;

· Provides uniform methods to be applied statewide, and is accessible by all

applicants;

· Uses existing and proven tools and methods;

· Uses project-level data, where available and appropriate; and

· Results in GHG emission reduction estimates that are conservative and

supported by empirical literature.

CARB assessed peer-reviewed literature and tools and consulted with experts, as

needed, to determine methods appropriate for the LCT project types. CARB also

consulted with experts to determine project-level inputs available. The methods were

developed to provide estimates that are as accurate as possible with data readily

available at the project level. For specific assumptions applied to each LCT On-Road

Consumer-Based Incentive Project, refer to CARB’s most recent Funding Plan for

Clean Transportation Incentives Emission Reduction Quantification Methodology.

CARB released the Draft LCT On-Road Quantification Methodology and Draft LCT

On-Road Benefits Calculator Tool for public comment on December 1, 2023. This

Final LCT On-Road Quantification Methodology and accompanying LCT On-Road

Benefits Calculator Tool have been updated to address public comments, where

appropriate, and for consistency with updates to CARB’s Funding Plan for Clean

Transportation Incentives.

In addition, the University of California, Berkeley, in collaboration with CARB,

developed assessment methodologies for a variety of co-benefits such as providing

cost savings, lessening the impacts and effects of climate change, and strengthening

community engagement. Co-benefit assessment methodologies are posted on the

California Climate Investments Co-benefit Assessment Methodologies webpage.

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Tools

The Final LCT Benefits Calculator Tool relies on CARB-developed emission factors.

CARB has established a single repository for emission factors used in CARB benefits

calculator tools, referred to as the California Climate Investments Quantification

Methodology Emission Factor Database (Database). The Database Documentation

explains how emission factors used in CARB benefits calculator tools are developed

and updated.

CARB uses the Final LCT On-Road Benefits Calculator Tool to conduct an upfront

estimate of GHG emission reductions and co-benefits of the proposed project. The

Final LCT On-Road Benefits Calculator Tool can be downloaded from the California

Climate Investments resources webpage.

The Final LCT On-Road Benefits Calculator Tool consolidated and replaced several

Quantification Methodologies that were developed for individual LCT projects,

including:

· Agricultural Worker Vanpools Pilot Project Quantification Methodology;

· Clean Vehicle Rebate Project Quantification Methodology;

· Clean Truck and Bus Vouchers Quantification Methodology;

· Consumer-Based Light-Duty Project Quantification Methodology; and

· On-Road Advanced Technology Demonstration Project Quantification

Methodology.

Updates

CARB staff periodically review each quantification methodology and benefits

calculator tool to evaluate their effectiveness and update methodologies to make

them more robust, user-friendly, and appropriate to the projects being quantified.

The changes include:

· Updated fuel carbon intensities for compressed natural gas, renewable natural

gas, renewable diesel, and biodiesel to 2022 volume-weighted averages;

· Updated fuel carbon intensity for electricity based on the 2023 annual update

from the Low Carbon Fuel Standard;

· Updated fuel consumption rates and air pollutant emission factors for all

vehicle types using EMFAC2021;

· Revised GHG and criteria and toxic air pollutant emission calculation methods

for natural gas vehicles (including CNG, LNG, and RNG) using data for natural

gas vehicles from EMFAC2021;

· Revised GHG and criteria and toxic air pollutant emission calculation methods

for electric and fuel cell vehicles using data for electric vehicles from

EMFAC2021; and

· Updated default fuel prices to 2022 West Coast and California averages.

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Section B. Methods for Awarded and

Implemented Projects

The following section provides details on the methods supporting emission

reductions in the Final LCT On-Road Benefits Calculator Tool.

General Approach

Methods used in the Final LCT On-Road Benefits Calculator Tool for estimating the

GHG emission reductions and air pollutant emission co-benefits for awarded projects

by quantification method are provided in this section. The Database Documentation

explains how emission factors used in CARB benefits calculator tools are developed

and updated.

CARB will quantify and report GHG emission reduction estimates and air pollutant

emission co-benefits using two approaches:

1. Awarded Projects: Estimates will be quantified using equations described in

this Section based on the project’s funding allocation(s). The Estimated Total

Project GHG Emission Reductions will be based on the total number of

incentives expected to be issued, estimated using the funding amount

allocated to the LCT project.

2. Implemented Projects: Estimates will be quantified using the same equations

as for Awarded Projects described in this Section, but use refined assumptions

based on data from implemented projects. The Estimated Total Project GHG

Emission Reductions will be based on the actual number of incentives issued

for the LCT project.

These methods account for emission reductions from baseline vehicles and advanced

technology vehicles. In general, for awarded projects, annual emission reductions are

calculated based on the anticipated proportion of each advanced technology vehicle

purchased or leased. For implemented projects, annual emission reductions are

calculated based on the actual numbers of each advanced technology vehicle

purchased or leased. The quantification period of the vehicle in calculating emission

estimates is based on either the ownership requirement of the project or the useful

life of the vehicle. Emission factors used in calculations are obtained from CARB’s

EMFAC2021 model. Documentation on the sources and methods used to determine

the appropriate emission factors is also provided.

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A. GHG Emission Reductions

Equation 1 or Equation 2 are used to estimate the total amount of GHG reductions

expected by the project, either based on individual vehicle class/technology funding

allocations (complex approach) or the entire project funding allocation (simplified

approach), respectively. Awarded projects may use either the complex or simplified

approach, while implemented projects use the complex approach.

Equation 1: Total Project GHG Emission Reduction (Complex)

Equation 2: Total Project GHG Emission Reduction (Simplified)

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Equation 3 is used to calculate the annual GHG emission reductions from purchasing

or leasing an alternative fuel vehicle instead of a baseline vehicle (e.g., either an older

conventional fuel vehicle or a conventional fuel vehicle that would otherwise have

been purchased/leased).

Equation 3: Annual GHG Emission Reduction Per Vehicle

Equation 4 and Equation 5 are used to calculate the annual GHG emissions

associated with baseline and advanced technology vehicles, respectively. For

implemented projects, the annual emissions may be calculated based on specific

vehicle makes and models rather than general vehicle classes and technologies.

GHG emission factors, energy densities, and energy economy ratios are obtained

from the most recent LCFS Regulation and LCFS Reporting Tool data. For awarded

projects, fuel consumption factors are derived from EMFAC2021, based on calendar

year values from the middle of the quantification period (defined as the starting

calendar year plus half of the quantification period, rounded down).

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Equation 4: Annual GHG Emissions from Baseline Vehicle

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Equation 5: Annual GHG Emissions from Advanced Technology Vehicle

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For the advanced technology vehicle, the fuel consumption is calculated using

Equation 6. For conventional hybrid vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles

(PHEVs), when direct EMFAC data is not available, they are assumed to have a 25

percent fuel economy improvement over the baseline technology. For natural gas

and electric vehicles, the fuel consumption is calculated based on EMFAC data for

those fuel types when available; for vehicle classes, calendar years, and/or model

years for which EMFAC data is not available for natural and electricity, the fuel

consumption is calculated based on the energy equivalency of the baseline fuel,

accounting for differences in technology energy efficiencies. For fuel cell electric

vehicles, the hydrogen fuel consumption is calculated based on the energy

equivalency of the corresponding battery electric vehicle, accounting for differences

in technology efficiency. For implemented projects, fuel economy values may be

based on reported values from project-specific vehicles.

Equation 6: Fuel Consumption of the Advanced Technology Vehicle

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An additional step is needed for PHEVs, which use two fuels (i.e., electricity and a

conventional fuel). As shown in Equation 5, the GHG emissions from PHEVs is

calculated as the summation of GHG emissions from electrically driven miles and the

GHG emissions from conventional fuel driven miles. The amount of emissions from

each fuel is apportioned based on the percent of electric vehicle miles traveled

(eVMT) relative to the total VMT of the vehicle. For PHEVs, the percent eVMT is

calculated based on EMFAC2021 data using Equation 7. For instances where PHEV

data is not available in EMFAC, the eVMT percentage for the average PHEV is

assumed to be 46 percent, meaning that 54 percent of the miles driven by an

average PHEV are powered by gasoline or diesel. For implemented projects, eVMT

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may be calculated as the weighted average percent eVMT based on the electric

range of PHEV models incentivized through the project.

Equation 7: PHEV eVMT Percentage

Equation 8 is used to calculate the estimated number of vehicles funded for each

vehicle class/technology combination based on individual vehicle class/technology

funding allocations (complex approach), while Equation 9 is used to calculate the

estimated total number of vehicles funded based on the entire project funding

allocation (simplified approach). For implemented projects, the number of vehicles

funded may be specific to vehicle class and technology or by vehicle make and

model, and is based on data resulting from the project.

Equation 8: Number of Vehicles Funded, by Vehicle Class and Technology

(Complex)

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Equation 9: Weighted Average Number of Vehicles Funded (Simplified)

Equation 10 is used to calculate the weighted quantification period for use in the

simplified approach.

Equation 10: Weighted Quantification Period (Simplified)

B. Air Pollutant Emission Reductions

Equation 11 or Equation 12 are used to estimate the total amount of air pollutant

reductions expected by the project (i.e., NO

, ROG, PM

2.5

, Diesel PM), either based on

individual vehicle class/technology funding allocations (complex approach) or the

entire project funding allocation (simplified approach), respectively. Awarded

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projects may use either the complex or simplified approach, while implemented

projects use the complex approach.

Equation 11: Total Project Air Pollutant Emission Reduction (Complex)

Equation 12: Total Project Air Pollutant Emission Reduction (Simplified)

Equation 13 is used to calculate the annual air pollutant emission reductions from

purchasing or leasing an alternative fuel vehicle instead of a baseline vehicle (e.g.,

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either an older conventional fuel vehicle or a conventional fuel vehicle that would

otherwise have been purchased/leased).

Equation 13: Annual Air Pollutant Emission Reduction Per Vehicle

Equation 14 and Equation 15 are used to calculate the annual air pollutant emissions

associated with baseline and advanced technology vehicles, respectively.

Air pollutant emission factors are derived from EMFAC2021, based on calendar year

values from the middle of the quantification period (defined as the starting calendar

year plus half of the quantification period, rounded down). Emission factors for PM

2.5

include brake wear and tire wear, and may optionally include idling emissions. A 50

percent reduction in brake wear emissions is applied for on-road vehicles that

implement regenerative braking capability, such as in hybrid and electric vehicles.

For low NO

technologies, the NO

emission factor is equal to 10% of the standard

technology. Air pollutant emission factors for compressed natural gas, renewable

natural gas, and alternative diesel fuels are assumed to be equivalent to diesel.

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Equation 14: Annual Air Pollutant Emission Reduction from Baseline Vehicle

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Equation 15: Annual Air Pollutant Emission Reduction from Advanced

Technology Vehicle

Equation 16 is used to calculate the estimated number of vehicles funded for each

vehicle class/technology combination based on individual vehicle class/technology

funding allocations (complex approach), while Equation 17 is used to calculate the

estimated total number of vehicles funded based on the entire project funding

allocation (simplified approach). For implemented projects, the number of vehicles

funded may be specific to vehicle class and technology or by vehicle make and

model, and is based on data resulting from the project.

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Equation 16: Number of Vehicles Funded, by Vehicle Class and Technology

(Complex)

Equation 17: Weighted Average Number of Vehicles Funded (Simplified)

Equation 18 is used to calculate the weighted quantification period for use in the

simplified approach.

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Equation 18: Weighted Quantification Period (Simplified)

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Section C. References

The following references were used in the development of this Final LCT On-Road

Quantification Methodology and the Final LCT On-Road Benefits Calculator Tool.

California Air Resources Board. (2023). California Climate Investments Quantification

Methodology Emission Factor Database. http://www.arb.ca.gov/cci-resources

California Air Resources Board. (2018). CA-GREET 3.0.

https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/ca-greet/ca-greet.htm

California Air Resources Board. (2021). EMFAC2021 Volume III - Technical

Documentation. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2021-

08/emfac2021_technical_documentation_april2021.pdf

California Air Resources Board. (2021). Mobile Source Emission Inventory -

EMFAC2021 Web Database. https://arb.ca.gov/emfac/

California Air Resources Board. (2023). Appendix A: Emission Reduction

Quantification Methodology. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2023-

10/Appendix%20A%20fy2023_24_funding_plan.pdf

California Air Resources Board. (2023). Proposed Fiscal Year 2023-24 Funding Plan

for Clean Transportation Incentives for Low Carbon Transportation Investments and

the Air Quality Improvement Program. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-

work/programs/low-carbon-transportation-investments-and-air-quality-improvement-

program/funding