07/06/2016
ABOUT THE HALIFAX HOUSE PRICE INDEX
The Halifax House Price Index is the UK's longest running monthly house pric
From this data, a "standardised" house price is calculated and property price m
analysed over time. The annual change is calculated as an average for the lat
figures provide a better picture of the underlying trend compared to a monthly
e series with data covering the whole country going back to January 1983.
ovements on a like-for-like basis (including seasonal adjustments) are
est three months compared with the same period a year earlier. These
year-on-year number as they smooth out any short-term fluctuations.
For more information on our housing market research, click on
http://www.halifax.co.uk/house-price-index
Annual house price growth unchanged at 9.2%
• Prices in the three months to May were
9.2% higher than in the same three months a
year earlier
• House prices in the latest three months
(March-May) were 1.4% higher than in the
preceding three months
UK House
prices
May 2016
(seasonally adjusted)
Annual change
+9.2%
Quarterly change
+1.4%
Monthly change
+0.6%
Average Price
£213,472
Martin Ellis, Halifax housing economist, said:
“House prices in the three months to May were
1.4% higher than in the previous quarter. The
annual rate of growth was unchanged at 9.2%; the
lowest since last autumn.
“Low interest rates, increasing employment and
rising real earnings, continue to support housing
demand. The strength of demand, combined with
very low supply, is causing house prices to rise at
a brisk pace in quarterly and annual terms.
“Increasing affordability issues, caused by a
sustained period of higher-than-earnings house
price growth, should curb housing demand and
result in some slowdown in house price growth as
the year progresses.”
UK House Prices
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10 .0
12 .0
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Quarterly Annual % Change 3 M onth on 3 M onth
% Change
Monthly % Change
Sources: Halifax, Markit.
House Price Optimism & Economic Optimism
9
-2
7
19
15 15
20
33
40
64
66
65
66
62
57
62
52
60
64
58
68
64 63
61
56
-28
-32
-48
-14
-32
-9
-6
-19
0
23
15
23
29
24
19
5
12
11
21 21
26
16
1
-1
-17
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
10 0
Apr-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
HPO - balance of % higher minus % lower EOI - balance of % improve minus % get worse
Sources: Halifax, Ipsos Mori.
House Price Earnings Ratio
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
May-01
May-02
May-03
May-04
May-05
May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
House Price Earnings Ratio
Sources: Halifax calculations based on data from Halifax, Markit and ONS.
ABOUT THE HALIFAX HOUSE PRICE INDEX
The Halifax House Price Index is the UK's longest running monthly house price series with data covering the whole country going back to January 1983.
From this data, a "standardised" house price is calculated and property price movements on a like-for-like basis (including seasonal adjustments) are
analysed over time. The annual change is calculated as an average for the latest three months compared with the same period a year earlier. These
figures provide a better picture of the underlying trend compared to a monthly year-on-year number as they smooth out any short-term fluctuations.
For more information on our housing market research, click on
http://www.halifax.co.uk/house-price-index
07/06/2016
Key facts
House Prices Housing Activity
• House prices in the three months to
May were 1.4% higher than in the
preceding three months (December
2015-February 2016). This was slightly
below April’s 1.5% and was the lowest
since November 2015 (1.4%).
• Prices in the three months to May
were 9.2% higher than in the same
three months a year earlier. This was
unchanged from April.
• House prices increased by 0.6%
between April and May. This largely
offset April’s 0.8% fall. The quarter on
quarter change is a more reliable
indicator of the underlying trend.
•
Property prices per square metre
have risen by 432% in Greater London
against a national average increase of
251% over the past two decades,
according to separate research from
Halifax. Although London dominates the
country's list of most expensive property
locations on a per square metre basis,
five areas outside southern England
fetch a higher property price per square
metre than the national average of
£2,216 – Solihull and Leamington Spa in
the West Midlands, Altrincham in the
North West, Scotland’s capital,
Edinburgh, and Harrogate in Yorkshire.
• Home sales dropped substantially in
April. UK home sales fell by 45% from
153,700 in March - the highest monthly
total since records began in April 2005 –
to 84,300 in April - the lowest since
March 2013. The sharp rise in March
followed by the subsequent decline are
likely to reflect a rush to complete sales
ahead of the introduction of new higher
stamp duty tax rates for buy to let and
second homes that came into effect in
April. (Source: HMRC, seasonally-
adjusted figures)
• Stamp duty change also affecting
mortgage approvals. The volume of
mortgage approvals for house purchases
– a leading indicator of completed house
sales – fell by 5.8% between March and
April. Approvals were 2% lower than in
April 2015. (Source: Bank of England,
seasonally-adjusted figures)
•
Supply remains very low. New
instructions by home sellers fell for the
second consecutive month in April. This
contributed to a rise in the stock of
homes available for sales as market
conditions remain very tight. New
housing starts in England fell in 2016
Quarter 1 and were 3.4% lower than in
the previous quarter and 8.6% down on
2015 Quarter 1. Housebuilding is being
held back by material and labour
constraints. (Sources: Royal Institution of
Chartered Surveyors’ (RICS) monthly
report and DCLG)
Halifax House Price Index is prepared from information that Markit and Halifax believe is collated with care, but Markit and/or Halifax do not make any
warranty, guarantee or representation as to its accuracy, timeliness or completeness, or its fitness for any particular purpose. The Index is provided
on an "as is", "where is" basis. Markit reserves the right to vary or discontinue the Index at any time for regulatory or other reasons. Various factors,
including external factors beyond Markit and Halifax’s control might necessitate material changes to the Index.
For more information on our housing market research, click on
http://www.halifax.co.uk/house-price-index
07/06/2016
UK House Prices: Historical Data
All Houses, All Buyers (Seasonally Adjusted)
Index
1983=100
1
Standardised
Average Price
£
2
Monthly
Change
%
Quarterly
Change
%*
Annual
Change
%**
Period
May 2015
635.7 196,429 -0.3 2.1 8.6
Jun
647.4 200,021 1.8 3.3 9.6
Jul
645.0 199,299 -0.4 2.2 7.8
Aug
662.6 204,722 2.7 3.0 9.0
Sep
656.8 202,931 -0.9 1.8 8.6
Oct
663.3 204,932 1.0 2.8 9.7
Nov
662.9 204,830 0.0 1.4 9.0
Dec
676.2 208,943 2.0 1.8 9.5
Jan 2016
687.8 212,502 1.7 2.2 9.7
Feb
677.5 209,334 -1.5 3.0 9.7
Mar
692.4 213,945 2.2 2.9 10.1
Apr
686.8 212,204 -0.8 1.5 9.2
May
690.9 213,472 0.6 1.4 9.2
EDITORS' NOTES
* House price data on a quarterly basis provides the clearest indication of overall market trends, smoothing out the monthly volatility caused by
the reduced number of monthly transactions used to calculate all house price indices.
** The annual change numbers are the quarterly year-on-year figures. These figures provide a better picture of underlying trends compared to a
monthly year-on-year number as they smooth out any short-term fluctuations.
1. INDEX
The standardised index is seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Bureau of the Census X-11 moving-average method based on a rolling 84-month
series. Each month, the seasonally adjusted figure for the same month a year ago and last month's figure are subject to revision.
2. STANDARDISED AVERAGE PRICE
The standardised average price is calculated using the HPI’s mix adjusted methodology.
.
For further information please contact:
Email: [email protected]
For historical data or for technical queries contact
PRESS OFFICE CONTACTS:
Halifax press team:
Angus Cheyne: 0131 655 7019/ 07970 566 594 [email protected]
Sarika Thanki: 07557 661 569 [email protected]
Kimberley Hamilton: 07557 257 298 [email protected]
Halifax House Price Index is prepared from information that Markit and Halifax believe is collated with care, but Markit and/or Halifax do not make any
warranty, guarantee or representation as to its accuracy, timeliness or completeness, or its fitness for any particular purpose. The Index is provided
on an "as is", "where is" basis. Markit reserves the right to vary or discontinue the Index at any time for regulatory or other reasons. Various factors,
including external factors beyond Markit and Halifax’s control might necessitate material changes to the Index.
For more information on our housing market research, click on
http://www.halifax.co.uk/house-price-index
07/06/2016
About Markit
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insurance companies. Founded in 2003, we employ over 4,000 people in 11 countries. Markit shares are listed on Nasdaq under the symbol MRKT.
For more information, please see www.markit.com
.
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and logo on the Index by Markit is under licence from Lloyds Banking Group and its affiliates. Markit and the Markit logo are registered trade
marks of Markit Group Limited.
Any unauthorised use, including but not limited to copying, distributing, transmitting or otherwise of any data appearing is not permitted without
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any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in the data, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall Markit be liable for any
special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the data. For the avoidance of doubt, the Index and the data cannot be
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July, 2013 or the European Union Regulation for Financial Benchmarks any other similar or comparable framework, principles, guidelines,
rules, regulations or laws governing the administration of, submission of data to or the management of benchmarks and indices, including for the
purposes of measuring the performance of a financial instrument or determining the interest payable, or other sums due under financial
contracts or financial instruments or determining their value or the price at which they be bought, sold, traded or redeemed. A licence from
Markit is required for benchmark and all other uses of the Halifax House Price Index.
