Western Spaces, LLC Pagosa Springs Market Study 2022
TOWN OF CRESTED BUTTE MARKET ANALYSIS
OCTOBER 2022
PREPARED BY WESTERN SPACES FOR THE TOWN OF CRESTED BUTTE
Western Spaces, LLC Crested Butte Market Study October 2022
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Table of Contents
Key Findings ................................................................................................................................... 3
Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 9
Methodology and Sources ............................................................................................................ 9
Area Covered ............................................................................................................................... 10
Gunnison County ..................................................................................................................... 11
North and South Valley ........................................................................................................... 12
Market Area Demographics .................................................................................................... 12
Economic Conditions ................................................................................................................... 13
Unemployment ........................................................................................................................ 13
Current and Projected Jobs..................................................................................................... 15
Jobs by Sector........................................................................................................................... 16
Commuting............................................................................................................................... 17
Employer Perceptions ............................................................................................................. 18
Deed Restricted Inventory .......................................................................................................... 19
Renter Market Size ...................................................................................................................... 21
Current and Projected Renter Households ........................................................................... 21
Renter Households by AMI ..................................................................................................... 22
Maximum Affordable Rents .................................................................................................... 23
HH Sizes and Incomes ............................................................................................................. 23
Renter Market Conditions ........................................................................................................... 24
Vacancy Rates .......................................................................................................................... 24
Market Rents ............................................................................................................................ 24
Rental Trends ........................................................................................................................... 25
Ownership Market Size ............................................................................................................... 26
Current and Projected Owner Households ........................................................................... 26
Owner Households by AMI ..................................................................................................... 27
Maximum Affordable Purchase Price .................................................................................... 27
Household Sizes and Incomes ................................................................................................ 28
Ownership Market Conditions ................................................................................................... 28
County Wide Sales Trends ...................................................................................................... 28
Transactions and Dollar Volume ............................................................................................ 29
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Affordability of Sales ............................................................................................................... 31
Occupancy ................................................................................................................................ 31
Availability of Market Housing ................................................................................................ 33
Sale of Deed Restricted Units ................................................................................................. 34
Residency Trends ..................................................................................................................... 35
Demand Estimates ...................................................................................................................... 36
Rental Estimate ........................................................................................................................ 37
Ownership Estimate ................................................................................................................ 38
Design and Development ........................................................................................................... 38
Number of Bedrooms ............................................................................................................. 39
Tradeoffs .................................................................................................................................. 39
Amenities.................................................................................................................................. 40
Lease Terms ............................................................................................................................. 40
Down Payment Availability ..................................................................................................... 41
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Key Findings
The purpose of this study is to determine demand for new ownership and rental housing in
the North Valley. The North Valley includes the Town’s of Crested Butte and Mt. Crested
Butte, as well as unincorporated areas north of, but not including, Almont.
Demand is calculated using estimates of existing households in the North Valley by income,
number of people in the household, and whether they own or rent. Additional data on
economic and demographic characteristics, trends in the rental and ownership market, as
well as housing preferences, help paint a picture of who might live in new housing and
what that housing could look like.
There is expressed consensus between residents and employers in the North Valley that
the availability of housing represents a major problem. When the market fails to respond to
a community need, it creates an environment where public and private sector cooperative
efforts can step in to provide solutions. An optimally located housing supply supports
resident and workforce mobility, productivity, and contributes to a higher quality of life.
Income Distribution
Household incomes are typically expressed as a percentage of the Area Median Income
(AMI) to allow for applicability among various programs and across geographies. For the
purposes of this study, the market is defined as households between 60 and 180% AMI.
AMI
Income Range*
Renter HH
Owner HH
60% to 80%
$42,480 to $56,640
18%
18%
80.1% to 100%
$56,641 to $70,800
24%
22%
100.1% to 120%
$70,801 to $84,960
18%
16%
120.1% to 150%
$84,961 to $106,200
20%
31%
150.1% to 180%
$106,201 to $127,440
20%
13%
Total
-
503
658
Source: Ribbon Demographics, Western Spaces Calculations
*Income range varies by HH Size, ranges provided here are for a 2-person HH
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Population
The population and labor force in the North Valley is
aging, as is the trend in other Colorado mountain resort
communities. According to the American Community
Survey, the median age increased from 36 years in 2015
to 41 years in 2020. The largest increase occurred in
households between 50 and 54 years (5%). Most retiring
workers in the community will remain in their existing
housing, increasing the demand for housing to
accommodate new workers.
Unfilled Jobs
After a spike in unemployment in April 2020 (16%), labor shortages are once again a
challenge with unemployment down to 2.4% in May 2022. As reported by the QCEW, total
jobs in the County follow a similar pattern to unemployment with a net decrease in jobs
(over 2,000) occurring in March of 2020. At the end of 2021, total jobs were near pre-COVID
numbers.
Gunnison County Jobs
Source: QCEW
Employers are both replacing employees lost between 2019 and 2020, as well as growing
and hiring for new positions. While low-wage and mid-wage jobs were the hardest hit by
COVID shutdowns, the ability of new hires to find housing is difficult for the entire
spectrum of income levels. Employers’ ability to recruit
and retain qualified employees has become harder, in
large part due to a lack of available housing. The North
Valley is seeing high demand for new talent, however,
the current housing supply is unable to accommodate
the influx.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019
8,748 8,784 8,765 8,095 7,992 9,060 9,389 9,330 8,907 8,447 8,072 8,976
2020
8,857 8,990 8,774 6,494 7,091 8,010 8,617 8,617 8,430 8,415 7,953 8,837
2021
8,752 8,834 8,861 8,533 8,349 9,202 9,389 9,245 8,762 8,767 8,336 9,111
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
Most retiring workers in
the community will remain
in their existing housing
increasing the demand for
housing to accommodate
new workers.
The ability of new hires to find
housing is difficult for the
entire spectrum of income
levels.
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Availability of Housing
Vacancy rates are below 1%, which is far below a
functional market vacancy level. Typically, vacancy
rates around 5% suggest some equilibrium in the
market, meaning there is sufficient supply to
provide renters with a choice of product. Vacancy
rates below this threshold indicate under-supply,
whereas rates above this level suggest over-supply
of housing.
The distribution of sales across the North Valley that are affordable to households making
between 80 and 180% AMI has been decreasing. As of early August, there were no market
rate units for sale in the North Valley at prices affordable to households making up to180%
AMI.
Rental Trends
Properties listed during a three-month inventory of rental listings revealed primarily large
homes that are fully furnished with high end finishes, or condos with amenities targeted to
second homeowners, and many do not allow pets – all contrary to what most locals want,
which is pet-friendly studio and one-bedroom units.
Interviews with multiple stakeholders, including property managers, real estate agents, and
other community members, indicate that rental rates and lack of availability have been
rising.
North Valley Average Market Rent
Studio
1BR
2BR
3BR
2016
-
$890
$1,175
$1,883
2020
$892
$1,104
$1,534
$2,100
2022
$1,150
$1,300
$2,295
$3,400
2022 Income Required
$46,000
$52,000
$91,800
$136,000
2022 AMI Required
74% AMI
73% AMI
115% AMI
154% AMI
Source: 2016 Housing Needs Assessment, Property Manager interviews, CHAFA
As of early August, rental vacancy
rates were below 1% and there
were no market rate units for sale
in the North Valley at prices
affordable to households making
180% AMI or less.
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Ownership Trends
Overall dollar volume of residential sales
in the North Valley remained fairly
steady through 2019 and then jumped
quickly in 2020. This increase can partly
be attributed to COVID migrations
coming with the arrival of summer,
strong demand fueled by the ability to
work remotely, and the motivation to get
out of urban areas. County Wide, the
median sales price for residential units
rose steadily between 2019 and 2021,
with an increase of 15% from 2019 to
2020 and another 17% from 2020 to
2021.
However, data indicate that the COVID frenzy has slowed and data show an overall
decrease in transactions compared to last year. Countywide, the number of transactions
decreased by 39%. North Valley followed a similar trend, with 37% fewer transactions.
Changes in the Use of Existing Units
Data indicate that the proportion of units occupied by long-term rentals has remained
constant within the Town limits (34%). A long-term rental is typically categorized as a lease
of 30 days or more. The trend observed in the last two years indicating an influx of
“zoomers” does not preclude those rented for a month or more, that effectively have
resulted in a loss of units available to the local workforce.
Additionally, as reported in the Mountain Migration report, families were moving into their
second home residences as a result of COVID shutdowns. This transition does not
necessarily indicate a loss of second homes, as many maintained their primary residence
elsewhere. While the ratio of second homeownership has not changed, the use may have.
This trend can attribute to the general increase in busyness around the area and around
town.
North Valley Transactions and Dollar Volume
0
100
200
300
400
$0
$100,000,000
$200,000,000
$300,000,000
$400,000,000
$500,000,000
2018 2019 2020 2021
Dollar Volume Number of Transactions
The trend observed in the last two years indicating an influx of “zoomers” does not preclude
those rented for a month or more, that effectively have resulted in a loss of units available to
the local workforce.
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Design and Development
Decisions about the provision of rental and homeownership opportunities – number of
units, location, unit type, amenities, and pricing, will depend on policy and developer
decisions as to which segments of the potential market for each should be the focus.
Units for rent could include one, two, and three
bedrooms but the primary emphasis should be on one
and two-bedroom units. Owners are most often in need
of two and three-bedroom homes. Homes of 1,200 to
1,800 square feet were reported as the “sweet spot” by
property managers and realtors, consistent with modest
two- and three-bedroom homes.
For renters and owners in the North Valley market, choosing where to live inevitably
involves tradeoffs. While many are willing to make tradeoffs to live in their preferred
location, the lack of available housing choice has resulted in renters simply getting by with
anything that is available and for would-be homebuyers staying in the rental market.
Demand Estimates
The estimate of demand quantifies the size of the market and the capture rates for the
proposed units taking into consideration the number of households residing within the
market area by income and household size and in-migration of households from outside
the market area.
This demand calculation uses a conservative method, considering only existing households.
It is assumed that with growth, demographics and preferences will remain much the same.
In market analysis it is not necessary to consider households that might move in unless
major events, like a large tech company moving into a community, are planned.
For new rental units, there is potential demand for between 40 and 82 units generated by
households with incomes between 60 and 120% AMI. The less served renter population is
between 60 and 80% AMI which is above LIHTC and generally still below market rate.
The lack of available housing
choice has resulted in
renters simply getting by
with anything that is
available and for would-be
homebuyers staying in the
rental market.
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North Valley Capture Rates – For Rent
60 to 80%
80 to 100%
100 to 120%
Max Affordable Monthly Payment
2-person HH
$1,000 -
$1,300
$1,300 - $1,600
$1,600 - $2,000
Total Eligible Households
116
134
60
Capture Rate - Conservative
20%
10%
5%
Number of potential units at
conservative Capture Rate
23
13
3
Capture Rate - Mid
30%
15%
10%
Number of potential units at mid
Capture Rate
35
20
6
Capture Rate - Aggressive
40%
20%
15%
Number of potential units at
aggressive Capture Rate
46
27
9
For ownership units, there is total potential demand for between 50 and 81 units
generated by households with incomes between 100 and 180% AMI. The majority of
purchasers will be first-time homebuyers. For households in the North Valley, 100 to 120%
AMI is a transitional range where renter households become more capable to purchase.
North Valley Capture Rates – For Sale
100 to 120%
120 to 150%
150 to 180%
Max Affordable Purchase Price
2-person HH
$360,000
$440,000
$540,000
Total Eligible Households
38
102
109
Capture Rate - Conservative
10%
20%
15%
Number of potential units at
conservative Capture Rate
4
30
16
Capture Rate - Mid
15%
30%
20%
Number of potential units at mid
Capture Rate
6
31
22
Capture Rate - Aggressive
20%
40%
30%
Number of potential units at
aggressive Capture Rate
8
41
33
Max Purchase Price assumes 30-yr fixed, 5.875% interest, 30% of income towards payment
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Introduction
The Town of Crested Butte commissioned Western Spaces, LLC, to complete a market
study to inform the development of workforce housing. The goal of this study is to
determine the spectrum of demand for workforce housing in the North Valley and to help
design a development program for targeting portions of that demand.
This analysis is different than a Needs Assessment in that it represents the households
from which a proposed housing development will draw its residents. It is used to determine
if projects are feasible and to gauge risk.
After quantifying the total number of households that comprise the market of potential
project residents, this report segments the market by income, household type and size,
and housing and location preferences to inform decisions about unit type, bedroom mix,
pricing, and amenities.
The market area is defined as the North Valley, including the towns of Crested Butte and
Mount Crested Butte, as well as Crested Butte South and unincorporated subdivisions
south to, but not including, Almont.
Methodology and Sources
Western Spaces, LLC reviewed all relevant data, conducted personal interviews with local
apartment managers, government officials, local real estate professionals, and service
providers, and independently established the conclusions for this report. This preliminary
market analysis is intended to inform initial decisions on the design and pricing of potential
new units.
This study references the most up-to-date information available from:
• Colorado State Demographer;
• Colorado Department of Labor and Employment;
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics;
• Gunnison County MLS ;
• Ribbon Demographics;
• Interviews of property managers, municipal and county planners, and
representatives of the Gunnison Valley Regional Housing Authority;
• For-rent listings in the Crested Butte News, Gunnison Country Times, Craigslist
and Zillow;
• 2016 Gunnison Valley Regional Needs Assessment by Rees Consulting, Inc., WSW
Consulting and Williford LLC;
• 2021 Gunnison Valley Housing Market Update by Williford LLC, Rees Consulting
and the Urban Rural Continuum;
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• 2021 North Gunnison Valley Rental Market by Williford LLC and Karen Bauer.
• Stakeholder interviews.
Area Covered
This report uses the same methodology for defining market areas as the 2021 Gunnison
Valley Housing Market Update. The North Valley is the primary market and the focus of this
report. For data collection purposes, the North Valley includes census tract 9638. South
Valley is the secondary market and includes census tracts 9636 and 9637.
Market Area
Source: ESRI, US Census
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Gunnison County
Gunnison County is the fifth-largest county by area in Colorado with 3,260 square miles.
According to the National Community Survey, residents rate the County as an excellent
(46%) or good (43%) place to live. This is an indicator of the overall health of the County.
Place to Live
2018 Gunnison National Community Survey (NCS)
Per the Colorado Department of Local Affairs State Demography Office, the 2020
population of Gunnison County is estimated to be 16,944. The largest age category is the
25 to 44 age group (28%).
Population by Age Group 2020 Gunnison County
Source: Data Visualization by the Colorado State Demography Office
The County is projected to grow to 18,149 by 2030, about 7%. During that time,
countywide, the largest growth is projected to occur in the 45 to 54 age group, while the 25
to 44 age group is projected to decrease.
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Projected Population Change by Age Group, 2020 to 2030 Gunnison County
Source: Data Visualization by the Colorado State Demography Office
North and South Valley
Overall, 34% of households in the County are located in the North Valley and a slightly
higher 36% of owner households are located in the North Valley. The distribution of owner
and renter households varies, with the South Valley having a higher ratio of renters (43%)
compared to the North Valley (37%).
Households by Tenure
South Valley
North Valley
#
%
#
%
Rent
2,088
43%
913
37%
Own
2,740
57%
1,533
63%
Total
4,828
100%
2,446
100%
Source: Ribbon Demographics
Market Area Demographics
As of 2020, Gunnison County had a population of around 17,000 persons residing in 12,131
households. Of these, 2,256 households or 32% of the total were within the North Valley
market area.
In the North Valley, the housing occupancy rate was only 52% in 2020, up slightly from 2010
which was estimated at 49% occupancy. As classified by the US Decennial Census, a
housing unit is vacant if no one is living in it at the time of the interview, unless its
occupants are only temporarily absent. In addition, a vacant unit may be one which is
entirely occupied by persons who have a usual residence elsewhere. These primarily
consist of those used for seasonal, recreational, or occasional use. The estimate also
includes vacant units listed for rent or sale at the time of the survey.
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The homes that are not occupied by members of the workforce typically create demand for
workforce housing through cleaning, repair, snow removal, landscaping, and similar jobs
involved in the operation and maintenance of the units.
2020 Population and Housing Occupancy
North
Valley
Gunnison
County
Population
5,116
16,918
Housing units
4,355
12,131
Households
2,256
7,135
Housing occupancy rate
52%
59%
Source: 2020 Decennial Census
The population and labor force in the North Valley is aging, as is the trend in other
Colorado mountain resort communities. According to the American Community Survey,
the median age increased from 36 years in 2015 to 41 years in 2020. The largest increase
occurred in households between 50 and 54 years (5%).
Economic Conditions
This section of the report covers jobs, wages and the distribution of jobs in Gunnison
County. It also quantifies impacts as a result of COVID-19 closures and reviews the
quarterly survey conducted by the Gunnison County Recovery Team and the One Valley
Leadership Council for employer perceptions on housing.
Unemployment
Unemployment is estimated differently depending on the source. The Bureau of Labor
Statistics, which is the source used for this report, classifies people as unemployed if they
do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior four weeks, and are currently
available for work. Workers expecting to be recalled from temporary layoff are counted as
unemployed whether or not they have engaged in a specific job seeking activity.
When the 2016 assessment was released, the County’s economy was growing quickly.
Unemployment was extremely low at 1.9% and jobs were projected to grow at a rate of 2%
per year on average through 2020.
As reported in the May 2021 Gunnison Valley Housing Market Update, County job growth
between 2016 and 2020 ended up being even higher than estimated in the 2016 Needs
assessment (2% per year) at 2.6% per year on average according to the Colorado
Demography Office. Valley employers struggled with labor shortages in 2019 into early
2020.
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Coming into 2020, unemployment remained low up until March 2020 (2.2%). By Mid-March
the ski area was shut down, visitors were asked to go home, second-home owners were
asked to stay at their primary residence (essentially closing County boarders) and COVID-19
was determined a global pandemic.
The unemployment rate across the State spiked in April. The spike in Gunnison County
reached 16.0%, higher than the State of Colorado at 12.2%, but took a rapid decline over
the next few months to 3.9% in October. As of May 2022, the unemployment was down to
2.4%, lower than the State overall at 3.5%.
Unemployment Rate Gunnison and State of Colorado Compared
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Current and Projected Jobs
The estimation of jobs, as with unemployment, varies by source. The Quarterly Census of
Employment and Wages (QCEW) is used in this report. QCEW monthly employment data
represent the number of covered workers who worked during, or received pay for, the pay
period that included the 12th day of the month.
As reported by the QCEW, total jobs in the County follow a similar pattern to
unemployment with a net decrease in jobs (over 2,000) occurring in March of 2020. At the
end of 2021, total jobs were near pre-COVID numbers. The seasonal fluctuation of jobs in
the County follows a typical mountain tourist economy with drops during the shoulder
seasons in the Spring (April and May) and Fall (September and October).
Gunnison County Jobs
Source: QCEW
*2021 number are noted as preliminary
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019
8,748 8,784 8,765 8,095 7,992 9,060 9,389 9,330 8,907 8,447 8,072 8,976
2020
8,857 8,990 8,774 6,494 7,091 8,010 8,617 8,617 8,430 8,415 7,953 8,837
2021
8,752 8,834 8,861 8,533 8,349 9,202 9,389 9,245 8,762 8,767 8,336 9,111
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
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Recent Colorado Demography Office projections indicate strong annual job growth for the
next few years with a full recovery to pre-COVID total jobs around 2024.
Gunnison County Job Projections
Source: DOLA
Jobs by Sector
In Gunnison County, the largest sector is local government providing 1,401 jobs (12%). The
second largest sector is accommodation and food services providing 1,300 jobs in 2020
(11%). This group on average makes the lowest annual wage, between $22,382 and
$34,327. Construction, retail trade and arts, entertainment and recreation are the next
three largest sectors.
10,778
12,295
10,778
12,324
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
Total Jobs
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Taking a closer look at the effects of COVID on jobs in the County, data indicate that
between 2019 and 2020, an estimated 662 jobs were lost. The largest sector,
accommodation and food services, lost an estimated 296 jobs, followed by arts,
entertainment and recreation (151). These job categories are classified at low-wage
($22,382 - $34,327) and mid-wage ($36,522 - $49,472). The sectors that gained the most
jobs during this time period were transportation and warehousing and construction.
Change in Jobs by Sector 2019 to 2020
Sector
Change
2019 to
2020
Accommodation and Food Services
-296
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation
-151
Other Services
-82
Retail Trade
-48
Mining
-37
Prof., Sci. and Tech. Services
-17
Real Estate
-12
Wholesale Trade
-11
Information
-7
Local Government
-1
Manufacturing
0
Utilities
1
Agriculture
2
Health Services
2
Education
3
Federal Government
7
Admin. Support and Waste Mngmt.
15
Construction
23
Transportation and Warehousing
37
Source: QCEW
Commuting
The relationship between where households live and where they work in the region is
central to understanding current housing demand patterns and to planning for future
housing development.
Data and anecdotal evidence suggest that the ski and tourism industry in the North Valley
has contributed to local workers being priced out of the area. This is a trend seen in many
resort communities. To sustain a living, workers live further away, where housing is
available and more attainable.
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As noted in GVRHA Housing Market update, commuting up and down valley for work
dropped off sharply when businesses closed and/or employees worked from home, but as
employees returned to work on site, commuting returned.
Based on April 2021 responses to Gunnison County’s monthly business survey question
asking where employees live and where they work, 34% of employees that work in the
North Valley (Crested Butte, Mount Crested Butte, or Crested Butte South) commute in
from the South Valley. This finding is consistent with data from 2016. Comparing 2016 to
2020 employer survey data suggests that the dominant commuting pattern has not
changed – many South Valley residents still commute north for work.
In contrast, almost all (93%) employees that work in the South Valley (Gunnison, Almont
and the Unincorporated County) also live in the South Valley, a figure that is higher than in
2016 (82%). This indicates that workers in the South Valley are also increasingly living in the
South Valley.
A trend that was noted prior to COVID, but accelerated as a result, is the increasing number
of remote workers in many resort communities. This is a hard trend to measure, however,
Census data from the American Community Survey 5-year estimates indicate that the
percent of workers 16 years and over working from home in the North Valley almost
doubled between 2017 and 2020, going from 5% to 10%. This estimate does not represent
jobs in the North Valley, but employed persons living in the North Valley.
Employer Perceptions
The Gunnison County Recovery Team and
the One Valley Leadership Council conduct
regularly recurring surveys to ask
community members about their
experiences during COVID-19 and how the
regions’ economic situation is impacting
them. As noted, the participation rate has
declined in the last two quarters but still
provides valuable information regarding
perceptions on housing.
Responses in the last quarter of 2021 indicate that labor shortages are once again a
challenge, one that is likely to get worse. In the last quarter of 2021, 56% of business survey
respondents indicated that they have unfilled jobs. This is a 6% increase from April 2021.
Additionally, the percentage of employers who responded that it has gotten harder to
recruit and retain qualified employees has increased from 46% to 67%. Long-term
workforce challenges continue in the County and appear to be getting more severe.
Employer Comments:
“Create more affordable housing to be
able to support our workforce.”
“Actual affordable housing and a living
wage for this area.”
“Anything that can be done to provide
workforce housing for the people who are
already here!”
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Employers interviewed for this study noted difficulty for new hires across the board to find
housing. In particular, while the North Valley is seeing high demand for new talent, the
current housing supply is unable to accommodate the influx.
Deed Restricted Inventory
In the North Valley, the Town of Created Butte has been investing in affordable housing
options for over 30 years. The Town has enabled a wide variety of affordable housing
including rentals and home ownership units that are dispersed throughout. There are
currently 314 deed-restricted units within Town limits, including 16 employee housing units
owned by the Town of Crested Butte, 6 of which are dormitory style.
In addition to the 314 deed restricted units in the Town of Crested Butte, there are 95 units
spread between Mt. Crested Butte and the balance of the North Valley in unincorporated
Gunnison County.
Data recorded by the Gunnison County Assessor’s office for the North Valley were used to
assist in compiling this inventory. Assessor records were compared to the inventory kept by
the Town of Crested Butte, as well as the inventory kept by the Gunnison Valley Regional
Housing Authority. In the Assessor data, it was discovered that properties within the Town
of Crested Butte classified as residential in-commercial, dorm room, multi-family six-plex
and three-plex and four mobile homes were excluded. These have been added to
reconcile the tally.
North Valley Deed-Restricted Units
Units
Town of Crested Butte
314
Remainder of North Valley
95
Total
409
Source: Town of Crested Butte, Gunnison County Assessor, GVRHA,
2016 Needs Assessment, 2021 Needs Update
The largest category of deed restricted properties in the North Valley (40%) are two-
bedroom units. An additional 27% are one-bedroom units, followed by a similar 25% 3-
bedroom units. Very few, 8%, have four or more bedrooms.
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Bedroom Mix
Source: Gunnison County Assessor
Of the 409 deed workforce housing units in the North Valley, 150 are deed restricted or
used as rentals. The Gunnison Valley Regional Housing Authority (GVRHA) manages two
income-restricted workforce housing buildings in the North Valley: Anthracite Place and Elk
Creek Townhomes.
• Anthracite Place is a 30-unit LIHTC development consisting of one and two-bedroom
units. Construction was completed and it took about four months to fully lease up
(7.5 units/month.) The income restriction includes 13 units at 50% AMI and 17 units
at 60% AMI.
• Elk Creek Townhomes has eight units. Gunnison County owns seven and Gunnison
Hospital owns one.
Scattered throughout Town are 96 privately owned, deed-restricted accessory dwelling
units (ADUs) that are required to be rented via a long-term lease. Additionally, the Town of
Crested Butte owns ten units that are used as long-term rentals for Town employees as
well as a six-unit dorm-style property that provides housing for seasonal workers with
priority leasing given to Town employees.
Studio/One-
bedroom, 27%
2-bedroom,
40%
3-bedroom,
25%
4 or more
bedrooms, 8%
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Renter Market Size
Market size represents the market from which new development would draw its renters
and helps determine feasibility and risk. After quantifying the total number of renter
households that comprise the market, the market is segmented by income and household
size to inform decisions about unit size and pricing.
This section focuses on the North Valley and provides overall figures for Gunnison County
and the South Valley for insight into regional differences and similarities.
Current and Projected Renter Households
The potential market for rental housing in the North Gunnison Valley consists of
approximately 913 renter households who now reside in the market area year-round. They
represent the market from which apartment properties must draw residents. Design and
rent decisions should be based upon the characteristics and preferences of renters
currently living in the area since no significant in-migration from outside of Gunnison
County is anticipated.
Roommate households are the most common (40%), followed by those with only one
member living alone (32%). Families are in the minority (28%). About 18% of renter
households are families with children and 10% are families (both couples and singles)
without children.
2020 Renter Households by Type: North Valley
Source: 2020 ACS
Family, no
children,
10%
Family, with
children, 18%
Living alone,
32%
Roommates,
40%
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Renter households in the North Valley are projected to grow by 6% overall between 2022
and 2027, adding a total of 51 renter households. A similar growth rate is projected for the
South Valley (5%), adding around 118 rental households in the next five years. The largest
projected increase by household size is three- and four-person households (11% change
each). These estimates could be impacted by the construction of additional rental units in
the valley through projects not yet on the ground.
Projected Growth in North Valley Renter Households
1-person
2-person
3-person
4+ person
Total
2022
251
343
169
150
913
2027
258
353
187
166
964
# Change
7
10
18
16
51
% Change
3%
3%
11%
11%
6%
Source: Ribbon Demographics
Renter Households by AMI
Household incomes are typically expressed as a percentage of the Area Median Income
(AMI) to allow for applicability among various programs and across geographies. These
incomes are tied to household size and are published annually by the Department of
Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
For the purposes of this study, the market is defined as households between 60 and 180%
AMI. Applying AMI by household size to income estimates for households in the North
Valley, the largest category of households falls between 80 and 100% AMI (24%). The
maximum annual income for an average two-person household in this range is $70,800.
North Valley Renter Household Distribution 2022
AMI
Income Range
(avg. 2-person HH)
Renter
HH
Renter HH
60 to 180%
% Renter HH
60 to 180%
Under 60%
Under $42,480
328
-
-
60% to 80%
$42,480 to $56,640
93
93
18%
80% to 100%
$56,641 to $70,800
120
120
24%
100% to 120%
$70,801 to $84,960
89
89
18%
120% to 150%
$84,961 to $106,200
98
98
20%
150% to 180%
$106,201 to $127,440
103
103
20%
Over 180%
Over $127,440
82
-
-
Total
-
913
503
100%
Source: Ribbon Demographics, Western Spaces Calculations
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Maximum Affordable Rents
AMI’s are used to determine eligibility to rent most of the apartment complexes in the
County. Rents are calculated to be affordable at different AMI levels by the Colorado
Housing and Finance Authority (CHFA) and are often expressed by the AMI at which the
corresponding rental unit is income restricted, for example 80% AMI rents.
Maximum Affordable Rents by AMI and Bedrooms
Gunnison County 2022
AMI
Studio
1 bed
2 beds
3 beds
4 beds
60%
$930
$996
$1,195
$1,380
$1,540
80%
$1,240
$1,328
$1,594
$1,841
$2,054
100%
$1,550
$1,660
$1,992
$2,301
$2,567
120%
$1,860
$1,992
$2,391
$2,761
$3,081
150%
$2,325
$2,490
$2,988
$3,450
$3,849
180%
$2,790
$2,988
$3,586
$4,140
$4,619
Source: CHFA
HH Sizes and Incomes
The following table is provided to help inform potential unit mix, focusing on households
between 60 and 180% AMI. The majority of renter households in the North Valley include
one or two people.
North Valley Renter Households 2022
60% to 180% AMI
1-person
2-person
3-person
4+ people
Total
% of Total
60 to 80%
29
38
15
10
93
18%
80 to 100%
40
65
13
2
120
24%
100 to 120%
44
23
8
13
89
18%
120 to 150%
1
29
0
69
98
20%
150 to 180%
12
18
34
39
103
20%
Total
126
173
70
133
503
100%
% of Total
25%
34%
14%
26%
100%
Source: Ribbon Demographics, CHFA, Western Spaces Calculations
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Renter Market Conditions
This section provides an overview of the renter market. It includes an evaluation of current
conditions and past trends including occupancy, average rents, and renter preferences.
Vacancy Rates
Vacancy rates are below 1%, which is far below a functional market vacancy level. Typically,
vacancy rates around 5% suggest some equilibrium in the market, meaning there is
sufficient supply to provide renters with a choice of product. Vacancy rates below this
threshold indicate under-supply, whereas rates above this level suggest over-supply of
housing.
Focus groups and interviews with property managers and realtors support this data, noting
that in the rare instance when they have a vacancy, they can fill it within a week. Many
managers maintain a waist list, and one indicated that they do not bother because there
are always people looking for housing. Many properties report having historical occupancy
rates of 100%.
A three-month inventory of rental listings in the Crested Butte News Classifieds, Craigslist,
Zillow, property manager websites, and multiple Facebook groups resulted in just over 30
listings. Asking rents are captured below; however, because there are so few vacancies to
evaluate, the sample sizes are too small for meaningful analysis.
Market Rents
Rents and occupancy levels that drive rent adjustments tend to be more volatile in resort
communities than in more diversified urban areas. Rents are generally lowest in the South
Valley. Rents in the northern end of the valley have historically been the highest in the
region. Of the 31 units listed for rent in the North Valley over the summer, 40% are fully
furnished units.
For Rent Listings – Average Price by Bedroom Size
Bedrooms
June
July
August
0
-
-
$1,150
1
-
$1,267
$1,320
2
$2,238
$1,999
$2,650
3
$3,100
$3,500
$3,733
Source: Crested Butte News, Craigslist
Interviews with multiple stakeholders, including property managers, real estate agents, and
other community members, indicate that rental rates and scarcity have been increasing.
Concurrently, the quality of available rental housing has also declined. The rents below are
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based on property manager interviews and secondary data. They vary broadly and are
estimates.
North Valley Average Market Rent (excludes ADUs and Affordable Rentals)
Studio
1BR
2BR
3BR
2016
-
$890
$1,175
$1,883
2020
$892
$1,104
$1,534
$2,100
2022
$1,150
$1,300
$2,295
$3,400
Change
2022 Income Required
$46,000
$52,000
$91,800
$136,000
2022 AMI Required*
74% AMI
73% AMI
115% AMI
154% AMI
Source: 2016 Housing Needs Assessment, Property Manager interviews, CHAFA
*Adjusted for household size by bedroom(s)
Market rents have increased to levels where mortgage payments could be competitive,
depending upon how units are priced. To be affordable for households with incomes
ranging from 60% AMI to 180% AMI, monthly payments would need to range from about
$1,000 to $4,000, resulting in an overall average below $2,500 per month. Rents now
average about $2,300 for two-bedroom condos/townhomes and $3,400 or three
bedrooms.
Rental Trends
Properties listed during a three-month inventory of rental listings revealed primarily large
homes that are fully furnished with high end finishes, or condos with amenities targeted to
second homeowners, and many do not allow pets – all contrary to what most locals want,
which is pet-friendly studio and one-bedroom units.
Renters are seeking assurance that they will be able to renew their lease. North Valley
realtors and property managers report that in the last couple of years, renters are more
frequently forced to move when owners decide to sell or convert to short term rental use.
Managers of properties in the South Valley have seen some pressure from buyers coming
from the north end of the valley. Given the extreme for-sale prices in the North Valley, long
time owners are choosing to cash in and purchase in the South Valley where the prices are
more affordable. This trend results in some rental units being converted into ownership.
The decreased availability of rental units combined with rising rents will cause some
renters who want to live in the North Valley to consider buying, especially households that
have been residing in the area for some time. Employees moving into the area will be more
likely than longer term residents to live with multiple roommates, allowing them to share
the cost of higher rents with others and crowd into the available units.
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As senior employees retire, jurisdictions and quasi-governmental entities are struggling to
hire because of the limited rentals even in the higher rental ranges, so many positions go
unfilled. Landing pad rentals for these positions would go a long way in helping recruiting
efforts.
Ownership Market Size
This section focuses on the North Valley and provides overall figures for Gunnison County
and the South Valley to provide insight into regional differences and similarities.
Market size represents the market from which new development would draw homeowners
and helps determine feasibility and risk. After quantifying the total number of owner
households that comprise the market, the market is segmented by income and household
size to inform decisions about unit size and pricing.
Current and Projected Owner Households
Ribbon Demographics estimates there are about 1,533 owner occupied households in the
North Valley. These are households that are considered to be full-time residents.
Owner households in the North Valley are projected to grow by 6% overall between 2022
and 2027, adding a total of 86 households. This projected growth rate is consistent for both
owner and renter households; however, the majority of the growth in owner households is
projected to occur among those with one and two-people and the majority of growth in
rental households is projected to occur among those with three-four people.
Projected Growth in North Valley Owner Households
1-person
2-person
3-person
4+ person
Total
2022
482
615
225
211
1,533
2027
521
649
233
216
1,619
# Change
39
34
8
5
86
% Change
8%
6%
4%
2%
6%
Source: Ribbon Demographics
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Owner Households by AMI
Applying AMI by household size to income estimates for owner households in the North
Valley, the largest category falls between 120 and 150% AMI (31%). The maximum annual
income for an average two-person household making up to 150% AMI is $106,200.
North Valley Owner Household Distribution 2022
AMI
Income Range
(avg. 2-person HH)
All HH
HH in AMI
Range
% HH in
AMI
Range
Under 60%
Under $42,480
200
-
-
60% to 80%
$42,480 to $56,640
122
118
18%
80.1% to 100%
$56,641 to $70,800
142
142
22%
100.1% to 120%
$70,801 to $84,960
108
108
16%
120.1% to 150%
$84,961 to $106,200
205
205
31%
150.1% to 180%
$106,201 to $127,440
85
85
13%
Over 180%
Over $127,440
671
-
-
Total
-
1,533
658
100%
Source: Ribbon Demographics, Western Spaces Calculations
Maximum Affordable Purchase Price
The table below shows estimates for the maximum affordable purchase price by income
and household size. Housing is generally considered to be affordable when the monthly
mortgage or rent payment plus utilities does not exceed 30% of a household’s gross
income. Households paying more than 30% are considered to be cost burdened by their
housing payment, which makes it difficult from them to afford other necessities. While this
is a standardized measure, it should be noted that the cost of living, HOA dues, commuting,
availability of assets, and other factors also play into affordability.
Affordable purchase prices were calculated based on an interest rate of 5.875%, which is
about the prevailing rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. However, interest rates have
been rising and have a profound impact on housing affordability. Rates at the beginning of
the year were closer to 3.22%. This is a huge change for households looking to purchase a
home.
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Maximum Affordable Purchase Price by AMI and HH Size 2022
AMI
1-person
2-person
3-person
4-person
60 to 80%
$210,000
$240,000
$270,000
$300,000
80.1 to 100%
$270,000
$300,000
$330,000
$370,000
100.1 to 120%
$320,000
$360,000
$400,000
$440,000
120.1% to 150%
$400,000
$440,000
$500,000
$560,000
150.1% to 180%
$470,000
$540,000
$600,000
$660,000
Source: CHFA, mortgageloan.com (assume 30-yr fixed, 5.875% interest, 30% of income towards
payment)
Household Sizes and Incomes
The following table is provided to help inform potential unit mix, focusing on households
between 60 and 180% AMI.
North Valley Owner Households 2022
60% AMI to 180% AMI
1-
person
2-
person
3-
person
4+
people
Total
% of
Total
60 to 80%
48
34
28
12
122
18%
80 to 100%
34
67
21
20
142
22%
100 to 120%
20
64
11
13
108
16%
120 to 150%
52
84
36
33
205
31%
150 to 180%
6
42
12
24
85
13%
Total
159
291
109
103
661
100%
% of Total
24%
44%
16%
16%
100%
Source: Ribbon Demographics, CHFA, Western Spaces Calculations
Ownership Market Conditions
This section provides an overview of the ownership market for both market rate and deed
restricted housing. It evaluates current conditions and past trends, including the number of
sales, sales prices, and inventory of units listed for sale. The information was gleaned from
realtor interviews and analysis of MLS data for homes sold between 2019 and July 2022.
Current listings were pulled from the MLS on August 5
th
, 2022.
County Wide Sales Trends
County Wide, the median sales price for residential units rose steadily between 2019 and
2021, with an increase of 15% from 2019 to 2020 and another 17% from 2020 to 2021.
However, sales data pulled through July 2022 indicates a leveling of the market with similar
numbers to 2021.
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Price patterns vary by community, with Crested Butte having the largest swings by year. As
reported, the number of sales in Crested Butte currently total 25% (13) of the sales volume
experienced the last two years (average around 53 per year).
Gunnison County MLS Median Sales
2019
2020
2021
2022 YTD*
Crested Butte Rural
$1,010,000
$1,250,000
$1,337,500
$1,812,500
Crested Butte South
$547,000
$602,500
$872,500
$992,500
Mt. Crested Butte
$495,000
$500,000
$601,000
$565,000
Crested Butte
$1,042,500
$1,250,750
$1,002,500
$1,680,000
Gunnison City
$312,500
$343,500
$410,000
$456,500
Gunnison Rural
$376,250
$438,250
$575,000
$565,000
Totals
$434,500
$500,000
$582,500
$575,000
Source: Gunnison County MLS
Almont excluded due to low number of sales.
*YTD Pulled through July 2022
Transactions and Dollar Volume
The number of sales in the North Valley increased by almost 60% from 2019 to 2020. This
increase corroborates findings from the May 2021 GVRHA Market Update report that
indicated while COVID stalled listings and sales in spring 2020, the market quickly
rebounded when summer arrived with strong demand.
While this trend continued through the end of 2021, data from sales through July of this
year show an overall decrease in transactions compared to last year. Countywide, the
number of transactions decreased by 39%. North Valley followed a similar trend, with 37%
fewer transactions.
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Number of Transactions
2021
Jan thru
July
2022
Jan thru
July
% Change
North Valley
Crested Butte Rural
48
24
-50%
Crested Butte
South
18
16
-11%
Mt. Crested Butte
109
76
-30%
Crested Butte
90
52
-42%
South Valley
Gunnison City
79
68
-14%
Gunnison Rural
50
24
-52%
Countywide
Totals
353
216
-39%
Source: Gunnison County MLS
*YTD Pulled through July 2022
Almont excluded due to low number of sales.
Overall dollar volume in the North Valley remained fairly steady through 2019 and then
jumped quickly in 2020. This increase can partly be attributed to COVID migrations coming
with the arrival of summer, strong demand fueled by the ability to work remotely, and the
motivation to get out of urban areas. The number of sales also increased in 2020 but
experienced more of a leveling off coming into 2021. The increase in transactions in 2020
can primarily be attributed to single-family sales (77% increase).
North Valley Transactions and Dollar Volume
Source: Gunnison County MLS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
$0
$50,000,000
$100,000,000
$150,000,000
$200,000,000
$250,000,000
$300,000,000
$350,000,000
$400,000,000
$450,000,000
$500,000,000
2018 2019 2020 2021
Dollar Volume Number of Transactions
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Affordability of Sales
The distribution of sales across the North Valley that are affordable to households making
between 80 and 180% AMI has been decreasing. In 2018, an estimated 31% of sales fell in
this category, steadily decreasing to 13% in 2021. This year, through July, only 7% of sales
were affordable to these households. It should be noted that the calculation of affordability
does not include additional homeowner’s association fees (HOA). In many cases, HOA fees
significantly decrease the affordability of units.
In looking closer at sales affordable to incomes between 80 and 180% AMI, the large
majority between 2018 and 2021 have been condo units (around 94%). The average size of
these condo units is between 800 and 900 sqft. with an average of 1.5 bedrooms. The
majority of these sales were in the Mt. Crested Butte area (54% in 2021) and Crested Butte
Rural (24%).
North Valley Sales by AMI
AMI
Income Range
2-person HH
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
YTD
Under 60%
Under $42,480
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
60 to 80%
$42,480 to $56,640
0%
1%
2%
0%
1%
80 to 100%
$56,641 to $70,800
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
100 to 120%
$70,801 to $84,960
4%
4%
3%
2%
2%
120 to 150%
$84,961 to $106,200
14%
8%
7%
5%
3%
150 to 180%
$106,201 to $127,440
10%
8%
6%
6%
1%
Over 180%
Over $127,440
68%
76%
79%
86%
93%
Total %
-
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Total #
-
248
205
324
343
112
Source: CHFA, mortgageloan.com
*AMI for the average 2-person HH
Occupancy
Occupancy can be a hard measure to pin down and invariably only captures a point in time,
as measured by the Decennial Census. The Department of Local Affairs provides estimates
and projections at the County level that are based off of the Decennial Census, which is
used here. The occupancy rate across the county decreased slightly between 2010 and
2020 from 59% to 57%. The North Valley also experienced a slight decrease from 52% to
49%. Within the North Valley, however, the Town of Crested Butte increased the ratio of
units occupied from 65% to 68%.
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Housing Unit Occupancy
% Occupied
2010
% Occupied
2020
Gunnison County
59%
57%
North Valley
52%
49%
Town of Crested Butte
65%
68%
Mount Crested Butte
33%
26%
Source: Decennial Census 2010 and 2020
While the American Community Survey (ACS) only provides estimates from a sampling of
households, it can shed some light on patterns in the reasons for homes to be classified as
vacant. The 2020 ACS indicates the most prevalent reason for vacancy is use for seasonal,
recreational, or occasional purposes.
Reason for Vacancy – 2020 American Community Survey
North
Valley
Crested
Butte
Mt. Crested
Butte
Total Vacant Units
2,229
520
1,208
For rent
27%
26%
36%
Rented, not occupied
0%
0%
1%
For sale only
2%
2%
2%
Sold, not occupied
1%
3%
0%
For seasonal, recreational, or occasional use
65%
59%
58%
For migrant workers
0%
0%
0%
Other vacant
6%
11%
3%
100%
100%
100%
Source: 2020 ACS
Interestingly, units that are classified as vacant because they are listed as ‘for rent’ is the
second largest category. While the ACS does not further classify why the unit is for rent, it
can be assumed this category captures both long-term and short-term rentals. As noted
previously, there are very few long-term rentals available in the North Valley.
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Percent of Vacant Units Categorized as ‘For Rent’
North Valley
Crested Butte
Mt. Crested Butte
2010
13%
11%
18%
2020
27%
26%
36%
Source: 2010 and 2020 ACS
Units listed with the MLS include a category for occupancy at the time of listing. This last
year, the largest category of units sold were owner occupied (35%), followed by vacant or
second home (32%), short-term rental (21%) and long-term rental (11%). Data from sales
since 2019 indicate a similar distribution over time, with little variation.
2021 North Valley Occupancy at Time of Listing
Source: MLS
Availability of Market Housing
As of early August, there were no market rate units for sale in the North Valley at prices
affordable to households making 180% AMI or less. A total of 103 units were listed for sale,
with an average listing price of $2,100,000. Overall, 81% of listings are over $1 million.
With the exception of one unit, the remaining seven units listed below $800,000 were built
between 1974 and 1980, with an average age of 44 yrs old. As noted previously, HOA fees
are not included in the calculation of affordable purchase price and can significantly effect
affordability.
Long-
Term
Rental
11%
Owner
Occupied
35%
Short-Term
Rental
21%
Vacant
32%
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Current Listings North Valley August 5
th
, 2022
Listing Price
Count
Percent
$500,000 to $600,000
3
3%
$600,000 to $700,000
1
1%
$700,000 to $800,000
4
4%
$800,000 to $900,000
7
7%
$900,000 to $1 million
5
5%
$1 to $2 million
30
29%
$2 to $3 million
27
26%
Over $3 million
26
25%
Grand Total
103
100%
Source: MLS
Sale of Deed Restricted Units
The Gunnison County Assessor maintains sales records for deed-restricted properties in
the County. There are five categories of deed restricted sales recorded; income restricted,
price cap, residency requirement and long-term rental. For these purposes, long-term
rental properties are excluded.
County Assessor records indicate 62 deed restricted housing units sold in the North Valley
from 2017 through August 2022.
Improved Deed Restricted Sales 2017 thru August 2022
Bedrooms
Median Sales
Average
PPSF
Count
1
$190,900
$281
12
2
$276,757
$309
33
3+
$660,000
$473
17
Overall
$289,000
$353
62
Source: Gunnison County Assessor
Over the last 5 years, 25 vacant deed restricted lot sales have been recorded. In 2019, the
inventory for vacant sales was large due to the sale of lots by the Town of Mt. Crested Butte
and Prospect Development Company to Homestead Housing. The 20 recorded vacant lots
are now newly constructed 2 and 3-bedroom units deed restricted with price caps. In June
2020, the GVRHA held a lottery for pre-qualified applicants and the available 20 units were
claimed and purchased.
Considering the affordability of deed restricted sales over the last 5 years, the largest
percentage of sales were affordable to households between 80 and 100% AMI (24%);
however, this income segment only represents 13% of current renter households that
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would most likely be prospective buyers. In comparison, only 7% of sales were to
households between 100% and 120% AMI, yet this group makes up 10% of the market .
This distinction helps identify the income ranges that have fewer purchase options in the
deed restricted market. As you reach upwards of 120% AMI, many of these households are
renters by choice, are newer to the area, or are temporarily in the North Valley.
Deed Restricted Sales by AMI Affordability
AMI
Sales
(5 yrs)
% Current
Renter HH
Under 60%
16%
36%
60 to 80%
12%
10%
80.1 to 100%
24%
13%
100.1 to 120%
7%
10%
120.1 to 150%
9%
11%
150.1 to 180%
2%
11%
Over 180%
30%
9%
Total
100%
100%
Source: Gunnison County Assessor, HUD, Ribbon Demographics,
Western Spaces, LLC Calculations
Residency Trends
The most recent 2021 Town of Crested Butte housing census shows a small proportional
gain in both long-term rentals and short-term rentals between 2018 and 2021; however,
the ratio of long-term rentals (32%) and vacation rentals (16%) remained constant during
this time.
Community perception is that there has been an accelerated loss of long-term rentals as a
result of owners taking advantage of high sales prices. However, the data presents a
different narrative. In 2021, 11% of sales were existing long-term rentals, a percentage that
has remained constant over the last few years. The Town of Crested Butte 2021 Housing
Census also indicates that the proportion of units occupied by long-term rentals has
remained constant within the Town limits (34%).
It is important to note that the Town census does not account for the demographics of
renters as well as the length of time rented. A long-term rental is typically categorized as a
lease of 30 days or more. The trend observed in the last two years indicating an influx of
“zoomers” does not preclude those rented for a month or more, that effectively have
resulted in a loss of units available to the local workforce.
Additionally, as reported in the Mountain Migration report, families were moving into their
second home residences as a result of COVID shutdowns. This does not necessarily
indicate a loss of second homes, as many maintained their primary residence elsewhere.
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While the ratio of second homeownership has not changed, the use may have. This trend
can attribute to the general increase in busyness around the area and around town.
Demand Estimates
This section quantifies the size of the market and the capture rates for the proposed units
taking into consideration the number of households residing within the market area by
income and household size and in-migration of households from outside the market area.
This demand calculation uses a conservative method, considering only existing households.
It is assumed that, with growth, demographics and preferences will remain much the same.
In market analysis it is not necessary to consider households that might move in unless
major events, like a large tech company moving into a community, are planned.
Two market areas were considered for both ownership and rental. The North Valley is
defined as Census Tract 9638, the geography north of Almont extending through Mt.
Crested Butte. This approach is consistent with the primary market area used for the
Anthracite Place Market Study in 2014.The secondary market (South Valley) includes
Census Tracts 9636 and 9637 including Almont, City of Gunnison, and parts of Taylor
Canyon and east of Gunnison.
The potential market for deed restricted homes in the North Valley primarily consists of
persons who already live in or near the market area. Very little movement up valley of
families from the South Valley should be expected. Results from the 2016 Household
Survey in Gunnison County showed there is not strong interest from residents living in the
South Valley to move to the North Valley (10%).
For this calculation, data from the 2016 Household Survey is used to distribute potential
owner and renter households. Respondents to the 2016 survey were asked whether they
wanted to buy or rent a different residence and which community they preferred. For the
many renter households planning to move within the Valley (56%), most would prefer to
become homeowners (71%).
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Rental Estimate
There is total potential demand for between 40 and 82 rental units in the North Valley
generated by households with incomes between 60 and 120% AMI.
Tiers of capture rates are used to create a range of potential housing price points.
• The largest gap for rental units is between 60 and 80% AMI, where there is almost
no inventory and affordable rents fall below market rate rents.
• Rents affordable to 80% to 100% AMI start to overlap with market rents, particularly
for smaller units; however, availability is very limited.
• Households between 100 and 120% AMI can afford payments that exceed market
rents, thus smaller capture rates are used. Some households in this category also
approach the ability to purchase and are captured in the ownership calculations.
• The demographic over 120% AMI price point is not included in this calculation, as
that typically exceeds affordable/workforce housing needs and are well above local
market rent levels.
North Valley Capture Rates – For Rent
60 to 80%
80 to 100%
100 to 120%
Total
Max Affordable Monthly Payment
2-person HH
$1,000 -
$1,300
$1,300 - $1,600
$1,600 - $2,000
-
Eligible Households
93
120
54
267
In Migration - 10% of South Valley
eligible renters
23
14
5
42
Total Eligible Households
116
134
60
310
Capture Rate - Conservative
20%
10%
5%
13%
Number of potential units at
conservative Capture Rate
23
13
3
40
Capture Rate - Mid
30%
15%
10%
20%
Number of potential units at mid
Capture Rate
35
20
6
61
Capture Rate - Aggressive
40%
20%
15%
27%
Number of potential units at
aggressive Capture Rate
46
27
9
82
Western Spaces, LLC Crested Butte Market Study October 2022
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Ownership Estimate
There is total potential demand for between 50 and 81 ownership units generated by
households with incomes between 100 and 180% AMI.
Tiers of capture rates are used to create a range of potential housing price points.
• For ownership units affordable to households making between 100 and 120% AMI, a
lower capture rate is used to account for mortgage and down payment availability.
• Households between 100 and 150% are where the largest gap exists.
• Households between 150 and 180% AMI begin to overlap slightly with market rate
housing, although there are currently no units for sale below $500,000.
North Valley Capture Rates – For Sale
100 to 120%
120 to 150%
150 to 180%
Total
Max Affordable Purchase Price
2-person HH
$360,000
$440,000
$540,000
-
Eligible Households
35
98
103
236
In Migration - 10% of South Valley
eligible renters
4
4
6
14
Total Eligible Households
38
102
109
249
Capture Rate - Conservative
10%
20%
15%
20%
Number of potential units at
conservative Capture Rate
4
30
16
50
Capture Rate - Mid
15%
30%
20%
23%
Number of potential units at mid
Capture Rate
6
31
22
58
Capture Rate - Aggressive
20%
40%
30%
33%
Number of potential units at
aggressive Capture Rate
8
41
33
81
Max Purchase Price assumes 30-yr fixed, 5.875% interest, 30% of income towards payment
Design and Development
The information for this section is from a combination of data sources, including secondary
data as well as primary data collected through interviews and focus groups.
Design/location/price decisions should be based upon the characteristics and preferences
of households currently living in the valley who will likely lease or purchase most of the new
units.
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Decisions about the provision of rental and homeownership opportunities – number of
units, location, unit type, amenities, and pricing, will depend on policy and developer
decisions as to which segments of the potential market for each should be the focus.
The majority of purchasers will be first-time homebuyers. For households in the North
Valley, 100 to 120% AMI is a transitional range where renter households become more
capable to purchase.
Number of Bedrooms
The following table is provided to help inform potential unit mix, focusing on households
between 60 and 120% AMI for renters and 100 to 180% AMI for potential homebuyers.
Eligible renter households in the North Valley are primarily one and two-person
households. Units could include one, two and three bedrooms but the primary emphasis
should be on one and two-bedroom units. This is consistent with household survey data
collected for the 2016 GVRHA Needs Assessment, which additionally highlighted that the
need for one-bedroom homes for renters is particularly pronounced.
The large majority of eligible households to purchase a unit are two-person (42%). As was
noted in the 2016 GVRHA Needs Assessment, and further confirmed through discussion
with realtors, owners are most often in need of two and three-bedroom homes. Homes of
1,200 to 1,800 square feet were reported as the “sweet spot” by property managers and
realtors, consistent with modest two- and three-bedroom homes.
Eligible Households by Size and Tenure
Rent*
Own**
1-person
39%
23%
2-person
40%
42%
3-person
12%
16%
4+ people
9%
19%
Total
100%
100%
Source: Ribbon Demographics, Western Spaces Calculations
*Renter household distribution is for 60 to 120% AMI
**Owner household distribution is for 100 to 180% AMI
Tradeoffs
For renters and owners in the North Valley market, choosing where to live inevitably
involves tradeoffs. While many are willing to make tradeoffs to live in their preferred
location, the lack of available housing choice has resulted in renters simply getting by with
anything that is available and for would-be homebuyers staying in the rental market.
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For renters, cost is typically the number one deciding factor. Community character, access
to amenities and transportation are important. Many renters are willing to rent a smaller
unit that is affordable and in the right location.
For potential homebuyers, type of home and size of home is relatively unimportant
compared to location and price. This suggests that there is flexibility in terms of the type of
units to be developed in response to demand.
If priced appropriately and located where desired, condominiums and townhomes may be
acceptable to many who prefer to buy a single-family house. If housing cannot be
developed where potential buyers want to live or prices are not considered to be a good
value, it will be more important to provide the type of units that buyers most want.
Amenities
Realtors and property managers report that the preferred amenities of the workforce are
similar throughout the Valley and among owners and renters. Some of the most frequently
mentioned ones include:
• Furry friends allowed - Most HOA’s do not allow pets. Of the 32 units listed for rent
over the summer, only two allowed pets.
• Energy efficiency – Gunnison County is cold! Utilities are typically not included in
rent and many existing rentals are older. Newer energy efficient units are highly
desirable and more affordable in the long run.
• Storage – Mountain residents have lots of gear and recreational equipment. Plus
outdoor furniture and grills must often be moved into storage in the winter so as
not to impede snow removal. In-unit spaces, exterior storage lockers and extra
space in garages have all worked well.
• Laundry - In-unit washers and dryers are extremely important to most renters.
• Decks or Patios – Private outdoor space is highly valued among owners and renters.
• An Extra Bedroom – While many of the owners now living in deed restricted housing
and many of the potential buyers are single they want the opportunity to grow.
• Mud Room – Since residents have many boots, coats, hats and gear, a “mud”
room/entryway is far more functional and appealing than a coat closet. Designs
that provide an air lock/doorway between the entry and main living area would also
improve energy efficiency.
• A Second Bathroom – Whether for use by a roommate, family member or guest,
most buyers seek two bathrooms.
Lease Terms
Property managers report renters seeking shorter term leases, just June-August or just
Dec-March for summer or winter peak employment; however, this lease term is not readily
available in most situations. Most lease terms are for six months or one year. Those units
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listed as for month to month are primarily fully furnished and designed for short-term
rentals.
As noted through employer interviews, there is an immediate need to house new hires to
the community, provide a landing pad to absorb new community members and the
seasonal influx of workers, as well as contract workers looking for temporary housing.
This is not just evidenced in hiring new workers, but also in replacing retiring employees. As
senior employees retire and stay in their housing, jurisdictions and quasi-governmental
entities are struggling to hire at all levels because of limited rentals. Many positions go
unfilled. Mid-term rentals, typically leased for between one month and six months, could
go a long way in helping recruit.
Down Payment Availability
The availability of funds for down payments will be a factor and will determine how many
residents who want to own will qualify. Although there are some mortgage programs that
allow for little or no down payment, buyers’ costs increase under these programs with the
need to carry Private Mortgage Insurance, which results in higher housing costs. It is
appropriate to assume that down payments for first-time homebuyers of up to 20% will be
needed. With an example price of $300,000 the minimum down payment would be
$60,000.
