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TBut does betting on a long shot and profiting from a freak occurrence make someone a
skilled investor, or just the “lucky idiot” that Nassim Nicholas Taleb describes in “Fooled
by Randomness”? Should that kind of performance inspire reverence or concern? Well,
Amaranth’s 2005 gas profits produced awe, but anyone looking behind them should have been
worried. What would have happened, investors might have asked, if events had unfolded
differently? Taleb’s “alternative histories” are always worthy of consideration (see below).
TThe events in the gas market that decimated Amaranth in 2006 may have been unforeseeable and
unprecedented. But those adjectives might apply just as well to the elements that made it
successful in 2005, and no one – especially not the fund’s managers – seems to have mentioned
that fact at the time. When people profit from such things, it’s considered all right and good, but
then when they reverse into losses, it comes as a shock. They’re two sides of the same coin,
but investors have a really tough time keeping that in mind.
UWhat’s Real?
To be able to attach the proper significance to short-run performance, it’s essential that one
understand the idea of “alternative histories.” I came across it in Taleb’s book, which I consider
the bible on such topics.
This concept is related to Orin Kramer’s description of Tpast performance as “the interaction of
particular historical and market conditions and the judgments and beliefs of managers during that
period.” In other words, investment performance is what happens to a portfolio when
events unfold. People pay great heed to the resulting performance, but the questions they should
ask are, “Were the events that unfolded (and the other possibilities that didn’t unfold) truly
within the ken of the portfolio manager? And what would the performance have been if other
events had occurred instead?” Those other events are Taleb’s “alternative histories.” How
about an example of the right way to view outcomes? TWell, with the college football bowl
season upon us, I’d like to discuss last year’s championship game, something I’ve been musing
about for almost a year.
The University of Southern California football team was undefeated in the 2005 regular season.
It boasted two successive years’ Heisman Trophy winners and many other great players. It won
its games in spectacular fashion and was widely touted as one of the best college football teams
of all time. In fact, in the week leading up to the championship game against the University of
Texas, ESPN ran daily segments that compared USC against a top team from the past, each time
stating that USC was better, and why.
When it came down to game time, however, Texas played very well and USC couldn’t contain
their talented quarterback, Vince Young. With two minutes to go in the game, holding a slim
five-point lead, USC’s coach, Pete Carroll, chose to “go for it” on fourth down, rather than punt
the ball downfield – undoubtedly out of concern that if Texas got the ball with two minutes left
on the clock, his team would be unable to keep them from scoring. USC failed to make a first
down, and Texas got the ball with good field position, scored a touchdown and won the game.
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